The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 (2024)

FAQs

The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034? ›

In CBO's projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.

Outlook for 2024–2034

Increases in mandatory spending and rising net interest costs push outlays to $10.0 trillion, or 24.1% of GDP, in 2034. Revenues in 2034 total $7.5 trillion, or 17.9% of GDP.

The US economy's ongoing normalization has progressed further through the second quarter. Amid healthy consumer fundamentals, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2024 by 30 basis points (bp) to 2.5%, and for 2025 by 20 bp to 2.1%.

Summary. The federal budget deficit was $857 billion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$68 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year.

The New York Stock exchange (NYSE) at Wall Street, Jan. 31, 2024, in New York. A forward-looking measure of the U.S. economy continued to decline in January but importantly it is no longer signaling a recession in 2024, reflecting an economy outperforming expectations.

U.S. publicly held debt 2013-2024

In April 2024, the public debt of the United States was around 34.62 trillion U.S. dollars, more than two trillion more than in July when it was around 32.6 trillion U.S. dollars.

The PCE Index is projected to fall to 2.1% by fourth-quarter 2024, averaging 2.3% for the year. Supply chain improvements and falling housing prices have yet to be fully reflected in inflation numbers. Average inflation from 2024 to 2028 should dip just under the Federal Reserve's 2.0% inflation target.

By 2025Q2, quarterly real GDP growth rebound above the 2.0 percent pace, owing to a healthy gain in nonresidential fixed investment and the recovery of consumption. Calendar-year GDP growth registers 2.5 percent again in 2024 and notches down to 1.9 percent in 2025.

U.S. unemployment rate vs.

The unemployment rate started at 4.0%, fell to 3.5% by February 2020 and rose to 14.8% by April 2020, the highest level since pandemic. It fell to 6.8% by October 2020 and continue to fall 3.4% by January 2023 and rose to 3.9% by April 2024.

Is the US economy at risk? ›

At one point in the fall of 2022, a model by Bloomberg projected a 100% risk of a US recession over the following 12 months. Now, many economists are in the soft landing camp as consumer spending and the jobs market have proven to be much more resilient than anticipated.

There are two kinds of national debt: intragovernmental and public. Intragovernmental is debt held by the Federal Reserve and Social Security and other government agencies. Public debt is held by the public: individual investors, institutions, foreign governments.

Specifically, the budget deficit will rise from 5.6 percent of GDP ($1.6 trillion) in FY 2024 to 6.1 percent of GDP ($2.6 trillion) in 2034, to 7.3 percent of GDP ($4.4 trillion) in 2044, and to 8.5 percent of GDP ($7.3 trillion) in 2054.

Luxembourg ($140,000)

With a GDP per capita of about $140,000, Luxembourg ranks first among the richest countries in the world. A robust financial sector and a significant and constant influx of foreign capital characterise its economy.

Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the "second" estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

1. Luxembourg. Luxembourg is popular for its castles and beautiful countryside; its cultural festivals are one of its specialities. Luxembourg is situated in the heart of Europe and is the nation of 670000 residents.

In February, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Budget and Economic Outlook and projected that the nation will run a $1.6 trillion deficit in FY2024.

Economic outlook. 1.4 CPI inflation was 4.2 per cent in the final quarter of last year, 0.6 percentage points lower than we forecast in November. We now expect it to fall further to an average of 2.2 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2025 before gradually returning to target at the end of the forecast period.

Inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE), rose 0.3% in April, while the closely-watched core PCE was up 0.2% over the month. On a yearly basis, the comparable growth rates were 2.7% for headline inflation and 2.8% for core.

From 2021 to 2030, output is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as potential growth. That average growth rate of output is less than its long-term historical average, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.