Economic Forecast for the US Economy (2024)

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (7)

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Monthly update of The Conference Board's forecast for the US economy

The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

May 16, 2024

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period. Thereafter, inflation should gradually normalize to the Fed’s 2-percent target in 2025 as quarterly annualized GDP growth rises toward its potential of near 2%.Interest rates should fall starting in late 2024 but may stabilize at levels exceeding the pre-pandemic average.

US consumer spending held up remarkably well in 2023 despite numerous headwinds. However, this trend has begun to wane. Realretails salesgrowth is in retreat andconsumer confidence has fallen for several months. Gains in real disposable personal income growth are softening, pandemic savings have been exhausted, and household debt is increasing rapidly. Consumers are spending more of their income to service debt and auto loan and credit card delinquencies are rising quickly. Thus, we forecast that overall consumer spending growth will continue to slow in Q2 and Q3 2024 as households struggle to find a new equilibrium between income, debt, savings, and spending. While we anticipate labor market conditions t

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (8)

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (2024)

FAQs

Economic Forecast for the US Economy? ›

EIU

EIU
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is the research and analysis division of the Economist Group, providing forecasting and advisory services through research and analysis, such as monthly country reports, five-year country economic forecasts, country risk service reports, and industry reports.
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Economist_Intelligence_Unit
expects US GDP growth to grow by 2.2% this year and by 1.8% in 2025. “EIU's core forecast is that the Fed will cut rates in September and then again in December this year but risks remain.

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What is the future projection for the US economy? ›

According to the CBO, the United States GDP will increase steadily over the next decade from 28.18 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023 to 41.65 trillion U.S. dollars in 2034. The annual GDP of the United States for recent years can be found here. Also, view the monthly inflation rate for the country.

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What is the forecast for the US economy in 2024? ›

Key takeaways. Underlying resilience in consumption data prompts a 30 bp upward revision to our annual growth forecast to 2.5% in 2024. CPI inflation stickiness in 1Q24 leads us to revise our headline forecast to 3.1% in 2024 from 2.7% previously.

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What is the future of America's economy? ›

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.

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What is the latest economic outlook for the US? ›

The U.S. economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Adjusted for inflation, GDP was reported to have increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2024. That was a moderation from a 3.4 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of last year.

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How will the US economy be in 5 years? ›

The Federal Budget

Measured in relation to gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit amounts to 5.6 percent in 2024, grows to 6.1 percent in 2025, and then shrinks to 5.2 percent in 2027 and 2028. After 2028, deficits climb as a percentage of GDP, returning to 6.1 percent in 2034.

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Will the economy get better in 2025? ›

The global economy is continuing growing at a modest pace, according to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook. The Economic Outlook projects steady global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024, the same as the 3.1% in 2023, followed by a slight pick-up to 3.2% in 2025.

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Will the economy recover by 2026? ›

In 2025–2026, GDP growth will speed up thanks to a more rapid normalization of the business environment, to 5.3% and 4.5% respectively.

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Will the job market get better in 2024? ›

The labor market is expected to continue adding jobs in the first half of 2024 but job growth is anticipated to slow and the unemployment rate to gradually increase.

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How is the stock market doing in 2024? ›

“For CY [calendar year] 2024, analysts are calling for (year-over-year) earnings growth of 11.0 percent. However, according to a Forbes Advisor analysis, high interest rates and tight credit markets are still having pronounced impacts on certain market sectors.

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Will the US economy ever get better? ›

Overall, despite an expected slowdown in the coming quarters, we expect the US economy to post real growth of 2.4% this year and 1.4% in 2025. Over the entire forecast, economic growth averages 1.8% per year, slightly higher than the long-term potential of 1.5% per year.

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Is the US in a recession in 2024? ›

US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered at a strong 3.2% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That was after a gangbusters 4.9% rate in the prior three-month period. Fed officials estimate that growth in 2024 overall will hit 2.1%, then 2% in each of the following two years.

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What country has the best economy? ›

United States

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Will the economy recover in 2024? ›

Global recovery is steady but slow and differs by region

The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023.

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Is business slow right now in 2024? ›

In our latest Economic Outlook, we detail that we expect real gross domestic product growth to slow in 2024 versus the solid 2.5% growth posted in 2023. We expect GDP growth in year-over-year terms to dip to around 1.5% by the end of 2024.

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How bad is inflation right now? ›

A 3.4% inflation rate may not seem like a lot, or as much as the price changes you've noticed at the grocery store. But to put inflation in context over the last few years, consumer price inflation rose 19.32% between January 2020 and April 2024, and particularly high housing costs persist.

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Where will the US economy be in 2050? ›

The US share of the global economy has dropped from 28 percent in 1950 to about 17 percent today. Our central forecast is for a share of perhaps 12 percent in 2050, while our scenarios suggest a range between 6.7 percent and 18.6 percent.

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What is the stock market outlook for 2024? ›

The US stock market enjoyed a strong first quarter in 2024, advancing 10%. But inflation was stickier than some expected. In fact, the March CPI number that came out this morning was hotter than expected, too. And that's leading many to question when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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What economies are projected to be in 2050? ›

The global economy is expected to grow 130% by 2050, with China projected to possess around 20% share of the world's GDP in purchasing power parity. India is likely to surpass the United States, which is currently the largest economy in the world. The EU's share of the world's GDP is projected to drop below 10%.

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