Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (1)

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Rod Khleif

Master Multi-Family Real Estate, Create Multi-Generational Wealth & Freedom, Invest Passively or Actively | 1-on-1 Expert Coach | Multifamily & Apartment Investing | Real Estate Investing | #1 Best-Selling Author

Published Jan 22, 2024

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Bloomberg recently estimated that interest expense on the United States' $33T debt just crossed $1T on an annualized basis. Federal receipts are $4.4T, which means almost a quarter of all revenue is consumed by interest. Interest expense has doubled over the past two years and will probably move higher with 2024 auction activity!

"Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt." - Ben Franklin

We certainly have come a long way from the frugal beginnings of the country. The chart below shows how rapidly and seemingly out of control the US debt has skyrocketed to around $100K for every person in the country.

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (3)

In 2024, 33% of our outstanding public debt matures ($7.6T) and must be reissued in a higher rate environment. On top of this $7.6T, the federal deficit could hit $2.0T in 2024, which means the Treasury would have to issue nearly $10T of new debt. The question is: where is this money going to come from and what impact will this have on interest rates and taxes?

Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies. The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world. After the recent weak treasury auction, US government officials warned that they are seeing waning demand from international buyers. China has been a net seller and Japan seems tapped out. The strong dollar is also working against the Treasury. The US dollar strength versus other currencies makes it attractive for international owners to sell US debt and use the dollars to buy their own currency, boosting the value.

The remaining debt (22%) is owned by inter-government agencies including Social Security and Medicare. If you believe that Social Security and Medicare are bleeding off their surplus, then logically they will be net sellers over time as they use reserves to pay recipients.

The auctions will come down to simple supply and demand. We know the supply is increasing and the demand is falling, which is bad for pricing. If the rates on Treasuries are attractive (higher) relative to other options, then we should be able to reissue the debt. In the most recent auction, the FED had to pivot to shorter term notes to entice buyers. Today, the 6-month treasury note yields 5.25% versus 4.0% for the 10-year, so clearly interest costs will increase in the short term if the US government is forced to issue short-term debt to attract buyers. If we don't get our deficits under control, the situation will only grow worse.

There is evidence, however, that higher interest rates on US debt are attracting new buyers. Two European money managers, Rathbones and Pictet, both recently announced an increase in their holdings of US Treasuries due to the attractive rates. Currently the US 10-year (4.0%) is higher than in the UK (3.8%), Spain (3.2%), Germany (2.2%) and Switzerland (0.8%), so it seems attractive relative to these options.

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We are not sure how this will all shake out, but at some point, something has to give because the trajectory we are on is unsustainable. At the end of the day, someone will have to pay for the sins of the past. Taxes need to move higher, and spending needs to be cut; both moves would hurt the economy. A weakening economy would have a ripple effect across all businesses and commercial real estate. We do not think the tax and financing benefits awarded to multi-family would be impacted during the "balance the budget phase" that is coming, due to the core nature of our product. However, the cloudy outlook reinforces our conservative thinking when evaluating deals.

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Ilan Brodsky

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3mo

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great job rod!!!

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MOMINUL ISLAM

Digital Marketer | SEO Service Provider | YouTube SEO Expert | Social Media Marketing Manager | Google and Facebook Ads Service Provider | B2B Lead Generation. A Digital Marketing Specialist at Outsourcing BD Institute.

3mo

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Great

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Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

FAQs

Who are the largest buyers of US debt? ›

Top Foreign Owners of US National Debt
  • Japan. $1,098.2. 14.52%
  • China. $769.6. 10.17%
  • United Kingdom. $693. 9.16%
  • Luxembourg. $345.4. 4.57%
  • Cayman Islands. $323.8. 4.28%

What country owns most of the United States? ›

Which countries own the most land in the U.S.?
  • CANADA. 31%
  • Other. 28%
  • NETHERLANDS. 12%
  • ITALY. 7%
  • UNITED KINGDOM. 6%
  • GERMANY. 6%
  • PORTUGAL. 3.6%
  • FRANCE. 3.2%
Mar 29, 2024

Who owns most of the US debt in 2024? ›

Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 797.7 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.

How much money does the United States owe China? ›

US Treasurys Owned by China, in USD Billions

$797.7 billion of the total $8,023.7 billion U.S. national debt.

Who owns over 70% of the US debt? ›

Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies.

Does any country owe the US money? ›

China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.

Which country has no debt? ›

1) Switzerland

Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.

What is the richest country in the Americas? ›

The United States is the largest economy in North America, comprising about 80% of the continent's gross domestic product (PPP).

Who does China owe debt to? ›

China has little overseas debt, and a high national savings rate. In addition, most of the debt is state owned – state-controlled banks loaned funds to state-controlled firms – giving the government the ability to manage the situation.

Why is the US in so much debt? ›

One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.

How can the US get out of debt? ›

Tax hikes alone are rarely enough to stimulate the economy and pay down debt. Governments often issue debt in the form of bonds to raise money. Spending cuts and tax hikes combined have helped lower the deficit. Bailouts and debt defaults have disadvantages but can help a government solve a debt problem.

Who has the most debt on earth? ›

United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%.

What happens if China calls in US debt? ›

If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.

How much debt is Russia in? ›

In the latest reports, Russia National Government Debt reached 281.6 USD bn in Feb 2024. The country's Nominal GDP reached 494.7 USD bn in Mar 2023.

What would happen if the US stopped trading with China? ›

The costs to the U.S. economy if we were to prohibit domestic companies (impacting companies such as GE, Honeywell, Collins, and Parker Aerospace) from engaging with COMAC would be significant: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that losing access to China's aviation market would translate into a loss of $38 ...

Who is the largest borrower in the debt market? ›

India takes the top spot. Its $39.7bn debt towards the WB recorded at the end of 2021 is double that of the next biggest debtor, Indonesia, with $19.6bn. Pakistan and Bangladesh follow with $18.3bn and $17.8bn, respectively, according to WB figures.

Who are the largest investors in the debt market? ›

Traditionally, the banks have been the largest category of investors in G-secs accounting for more than 60% of the transactions in the Wholesale Debt Market.

Who does the US owe the largest debt to? ›

In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.

Who are the major domestic buyers of US Treasury debt? ›

At this point, the Fed is no longer a buyer of Treasuries. Pension funds, mutual funds, retail portfolios, institutional portfolios, and an assortment of exchange traded funds have been important domestic buyers.

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