US government debt to top $54 trillion in next decade, CBO says (2024)

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US government debt to top $54 trillion in next decade, CBO says? ›

The Congressional Budget Office cited an aging population and health care costs. The federal government's record-high national debt is set to get even bigger, reaching a massive $54 trillion by the year 2034.

The budget office projected that the annual deficit will grow to $2.6 trillion in 2034 from $1.6 trillion this year, adding $18.9 trillion to the national debt during the decade. By then, the debt is projected to surpass $54 trillion.

The national debt will rise substantially over the coming decades. Debt held by the public equaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of fiscal year 2023. Under current law, CBO projects that ratio will continue to climb — reaching 166 percent of GDP in 2054.

Currently the nation's $34 trillion debt is approximately 99% of GDP and, according to the CBO, will steadily increase over the next 30 years. In the near term, the CBO expects debt as a percentage of GDP to exceed the record peak of the Second World War by 2029.

WASHINGTON — The United States is on track to add nearly $19 trillion to its national debt over the next decade, $3 trillion more than previously forecast, the result of rising costs for interest payments, veterans' health care, retiree benefits and the military, the Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday.

The debt ceiling, or the debt limit, is the maximum amount that the U.S. government can borrow to meet its legal obligations by issuing bonds. If the Treasury Department can't pay expenses when the debt ceiling is reached, there is a risk that the U.S. will default on its debt.

Summary: PWBM estimates that---even under myopic expectations---financial markets cannot sustain more than the next 20 years of accumulated deficits projected under current U.S. fiscal policy.

Why History Shows the United States Will Not Grow Out of Its Debt. The United States is approaching record levels of debt. Debt held by the public totaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 and is on track to exceed its previous all-time high, which occurred just after World II, by 2029.

Yes, national debts affect inflation rates—but so do many other items.

Why is the US so heavily in debt? ›

It began rising at a fast rate in the 1980's and was accelerated through events like the Iraq Wars and the 2008 Great Recession. Most recently, the debt made another big jump thanks to the pandemic with the federal government spending significantly more than it took in to keep the country running.

China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.

1) Switzerland

Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.

According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of March 31, 2024 totaled $304.0 billion, having decreased by $12.8 billion, or by 4.1%, since the end of 2023.

The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world.

Debt held by the public, boosted by the large deficits, reaches its highest level ever in 2029 (measured as a percentage of GDP) and then continues to grow, reaching 166 percent of GDP in 2054 and remaining on track to increase thereafter.

The $34 trillion gross federal debt includes debt held by the public as well as debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself.