Inflation in Russia
From 2013 to 2022, Russia experienced high inflation, often exceeding 5%. The country's inflation was significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, currency volatility and fluctuations in global commodity prices. The Russian government and central bank implemented various measures to control inflation, but external factors and domestic economic challenges continued to exert upward pressure on prices.
Consumer price inflation in Russia averaged 7.2% in the ten years to 2022, below the Eastern European average of 7.7%. The 2022 average figure was 13.8%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
Russia Inflation Chart
Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for Russia from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Federal Statistics Service Russia.
Russia Inflation Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 13.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 4.3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 11.9 |
| Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.9 | 3.2 | -3.4 | 24.6 | 12.1 |
Inflation remains stable in March
Inflation held steady at February's 7.7% in March. March's reading marked the joint-highest inflation rate since February 2023 and met market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, an uptick in prices for non-food goods in March largely offset softer price pressures for services. As a result, overall inflationary pressures remained well above the Central Bank's 4.0% target.The trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.7% in March (February: 5.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation ticked up to 7.8% in March, from February’s 7.6%.Finally, consumer prices increased 0.39% in March over the previous month, below the 0.68% rise seen in February. March's result marked the weakest reading since August 2023.
Our Consensus is for inflation to decrease from current levels by end-2024 as the lagged effect of prior monetary tightening filters through the real economy. That said, our panelists expect average inflation to remain above the Central Bank’s target through at least Q4 2025. Meanwhile, the persistent inflationary pressures could deter the Central Bank from kicking off its monetary policy easing cycle soon: A majority of our panel expects the first interest rate cut to come in Q3.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs commented on the outlook:“We recently lowered our inflation forecast for this year, although the path remains unchanged, with headline inflation peaking in June at just under +9% yoy before gradually falling in H2.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 32 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Russian inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
