China's debt problem (2024)

FAQs

Why is China's debt a problem? ›

Altogether, China's gross national debt is over 300 percent of GDP. A high debt burden constrains the government's fiscal firepower, preventing it from unleashing bolder stimulus and weakening its effectiveness when implementing support measures.

The IMF expects U.S. government debt to be 133.9% of annual gross domestic product in 2029, up from 122.1% in 2023. And it expects China's debt to rise to 110.1% of GDP by the same year from 83.6%.

If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

Analysts estimate that two-thirds of corporate debt is in the hands of China's sprawling state-owned enterprises, many of which are unprofitable and inefficient.

Nominal GDP Growth Rates During the Asian Financial Crisis

From a national perspective, China buys U.S. debt due to its complex financial system. The central bank must purchase U.S. Treasuries and other foreign assets to keep cash inflows from causing inflation. In the case of China, this phenomenon is unusual.

China is in the midst of a profound economic crisis. Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China's debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 288% in 2023.

Foreign countries buy US Treasury securities since they are considered as one of the most secure assets. Among other countries, Japan and China have continued to be the top owners of US debt during the last two decades.

It began rising at a fast rate in the 1980's and was accelerated through events like the Iraq Wars and the 2008 Great Recession. Most recently, the debt made another big jump thanks to the pandemic with the federal government spending significantly more than it took in to keep the country running.

Does Russia still own U.S. Treasury bonds? How much U.S. debt has Russia owned in the past and did the overnight repo market & U.S. bond market nearly collapse in Sep. 2019 due to Russia & China selling their Treasury bonds? According to the US Treasury, Russian ownership of US Treasuries was $2.1 Billion in Nov 2022.

How much money does America owe China? ›

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.

United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%.

Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.

According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of March 31, 2024 totaled $304.0 billion, having decreased by $12.8 billion, or by 4.1%, since the end of 2023.

In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.

The collapse of Evergrande, once the world's most valuable real estate company, marked the beginning of China's real estate crisis. Founded in 1996, Evergrande targeted the upper-middle class, but excessive borrowing and overbuilding led to its downfall.

China's Problems Will Hit Other Markets

2024 is shaping up to be another challenging year for China as the economy stutters under the burden of mounting debt and deepening deflation.