Bleacher Report's Expert Week 13 NFL Picks (2024)

Bleacher Report's NFL experts delivered the goods for Week 12, going 11-5 against the spread and 12-4 straight up, and they're back for more green as we head into the crucial post-Thanksgiving stretch of the regular season.

This week's marquee matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles stirred up quite the discussion, but the final vote heavily favored one of these Super Bowl contenders.

Before we dive into Week 13 picks, take a look at the overall ATS and SU standings with last week's records in parentheses. All of our experts finished above the .500 mark for Week 12.

ATS Standings

1. Gagnon: 104-74-2 (11-5)

2. Davenport: 99-79-2 (10-6)

3. Moton: 98-80-2 (10-6)

4. Hanford 96-82-2 (10-6)

5. Knox: 90-88-2 (9-7)

6. Sobleski: 89-89-2 (10-6)

7. O'Donnell: 86-92-2 (11-5)

Consensus picks: 99-79-2 (11-5)

SU Standings

1. Hanford 121-59 (11-5)

2. Moton: 119-61 (11-5)

3. Gagnon: 113-67 (12-4)

4. Knox: 112-68 (10-6)

5. Davenport: 111-69 (10-6)

6. Sobleski: 108-72 (11-5)

7. O'Donnell: 106-74 (10-6)

Consensus picks: 117-63 (12-4)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 29, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

Not long ago, the Seattle Seahawks seemed like a viable contender to dethrone the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West, but they've gone through a downward spiral in November, losing three of their last four contests. In all three of those losses, Seattle failed to score more than 16 points.

So, of course, most of our crew sided with the Dallas Cowboys, who have won four of their last five games by 23-plus points, three of those outings at home.

Gagnon nearly picked the Seahawks, but the Cowboys' win margin at home coupled with the Seahawks' struggles against playoff contenders helped him make an easy decision.

"I was tempted to take Seattle here partly because my general approach is to go anti-trend," Gagnon admitted.

"Sure, the Seahawks need this and are typically too talented to lose four of five games. But combine Seattle's habit of falling flat in road games against strong opponents (see: Cincinnati, Baltimore and the Rams since Week 6) with the fact the Cowboys are 5-0 with a ridiculous scoring margin of 205-60 at home this season and it's impossible to roll with the Seahawks against a single-digit spread."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Seahawks

O'Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Cowboys

ATS Consensus: Cowboys -8.5

SU Consensus: Cowboys

Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Seahawks 17

After a 45-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Washington Commanders fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer. Head coach Ron Rivera will take over play-calling duties. He'll game-plan to slow down the Miami Dolphins' No. 1-ranked passing offense.

As favorites, the Dolphins have a 6-1 record ATS. Bettors can count on them to crush inferior opponents, but they had a sloppy 20-13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11.

With the exception of Sobleski, our panel doesn't see how Washington's defense regroups to keep pace with the Dolphins' electric offense. Knox also factored in the Commanders' inconsistent offense with Sam Howell under center.

"Sam Howell is a lot of fun to watch because he can make either a jaw-dropping throw or a head-scratching mistake on any given play. There are glimpses of Brett Favre or Jameis Winston in his game, which can be both fantastic and frustrating—Howell leads the league in attempts, completions, yards and interceptions.

"Against a Miami defense that has improved greatly since the season debut of Jalen Ramsey (16 PPG allowed over the last four games), I expect too many mistakes for the Commanders to keep it close.

"Washington's defense—ranked 30th in passing yards allowed, 32nd in points allowed and 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed—just doesn't match up well with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Chase Young and Montez Sweat were still in the lineup, I might feel differently, but they're not.

"I don't think that Ron Rivera taking over the defense changes much in a one-week span. Miami once again feasts on a non-contender."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Dolphins

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Moton: Dolphins

O'Donnell: Dolphins

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Dolphins -9.5

SU Consensus: Dolphins

Score Prediction: Dolphins 34, Commanders 23

For the sake of transparency, the Detroit Lions have burned us ATS over the last two weeks. They didn't come close to covering a 9.5-point spread in a 31-26 home win over the Chicago Bears and then lost outright to the Green Bay Packers as 7.5-point favorites.

Even more alarmingly, Detroit has allowed an average of 31 points in its last three games, at least 26 points in each contest.

While some of our experts have removed the Lions from the Super Bowl bubble, they all trust them to cover a four-point spread in a matchup with the New Orleans Saints, who field an inefficient scoring offense (29th in red-zone touchdown percentage) that may not have two or three of its top wide receivers.

Davenport spoke on behalf of a unanimous nod in favor of Detroit.

"Can you feel that? The palpable unease? The nervousness in the air? That's the psychic vibrations of every Lions fan after they watched the defense regress to 2022 form the past two weeks. There is genuine cause for concern about that defense," Davenport cautioned.

"But with Michael Thomas (on injured reserve with a knee injury), Chris Olave (concussion protocol) and Rashid Shaheed (quad) all injured, the Saints may have to hold wideout tryouts in the parking lot at the Superdome, and New Orleans has struggled to score touchdowns even when it had actual NFL receivers.

"Whether the Lions are a legitimate Super Bowl contender is up for debate—the Saints being mediocre really isn't."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Lions

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Lions

ATS Consensus: Lions -4

SU Consensus: Lions

Score Prediction: Lions 28, Saints 21

The Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots may fire their head coaches at the end of the season.

Going back to the offseason, we heard whispers about Bill Belichick's shaky standing with the Patriots. On Tuesday, Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz said Brandon Staley has the "hottest seat" among active NFL head coaches and needs a miracle to save his job.

Neither of these teams deserves your trust, but the Chargers can at least put points on the scoreboard with their eighth-ranked scoring unit.

As of Wednesday, the New England Patriots haven't named the starting quarterback for their 31st-ranked scoring offense. Last week, they benched Mac Jones in favor of Bailey Zappe at halftime. The two signal-callers threw for three interceptions (without a touchdown) combined.

A few of our panelists expect the Patriots to run the ball on the Chargers, who are tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns allowed (13), to keep the score within five points, but Davenport had the final word and gave the deciding nod to Los Angeles.

"Laying half a dozen on the road with a 4-7 team coached by Brandon Staley may well be...unwise. No team in the league is better at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory than the Staley-coached Bolts," Davenport pointed out.

"But the Patriots are an utter disaster offensively. It's entirely possible that by the third quarter, Edgar the Parking Lot Attendant will be playing quarterback for New England, and Darth Hoodie has spent a big chunk of this season Force-choking himself right into retirement. The Patriots scored as many points in November as the month has days—so maybe that spread's not so big after all."

Predictions

Davenport: Chargers

Gagnon: Patriots

Hanford: Patriots

Knox: Chargers

Moton: Chargers

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Chargers

ATS Consensus: Chargers -6

SU Consensus: Chargers

Score Prediction: Chargers 23, Patriots 16

Did the Pittsburgh Steelers unlock their offense when they fired then-offensive coordinator Matt Canada last week? Head coach Mike Tomlin would probably say no, but in Week 12, Pittsburgh accumulated 400-plus total yards for the first time since the 2020 campaign.

Still, we must acknowledge that a 5.5-point spread feels like 10.5 points for a team that hasn't scored 27 points in a game this season.

Exaggeration aside, the Steelers could roll the Arizona Cardinals out of their stadium. The Cardinals have lost two of their last four games by 23-plus points. Quarterback Kyler Murray's return hasn't helped Arizona's offense win scoring shootouts to offset the team's 31st-ranked scoring defense.

Hanford won't say the Steelers offense has turned the corner, but he expects their run game to bludgeon the Cardinals' defensive front for a comfortable victory.

"It took all of one game for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers to show signs of life without Matt Canada. I'm not ready to say that will continue for the rest of the season. But I also don't think a Cardinals defense allowing the second-most rushing yards in the NFL is the unit to slow down Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who are both top five in rushing yards since Week 9.

"The Steelers should control the clock, lean on a defense that's fifth in DVOA since Week 6 and win by a touchdown at home."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Steelers

Hanford: Steelers

Knox: Cardinals

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Cardinals

ATS Consensus: Steelers -5.5

SU Consensus: Steelers

Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Cardinals 20

The Carolina Panthers had an eventful week. They fired head coach Frank Reich, quarterbacks coach Josh McCown and (assistant head coach) running backs coach Duce Staley. Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor will take over as the interim head coach.

In back-to-back campaigns, Carolina has fired its lead skipper midseason. Last year, after the Panthers fired Matt Rhule, the team went on the road and lost 24-10 to the Los Angeles Rams.

Now, the Panthers will go on the road to face a division rival in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has an ankle injury, but MRI tests came back negative, which may be enough to keep Kyle Trask on the sideline.

Our panel went down the middle with this game, and Gagnon made the final verdict in favor of Carolina.

"You never know how a team's going to react to the firing of a head coach, but I can't imagine this Carolina roster was that attached to Frank Reich after just 11 games, and it can't really get worse in Carolina anyway," Gagnon said.

"I actually expect to see a jolt of energy from the Panthers after a fiery week, and it's important to note that the Bucs are a bad team with just one win since October 1. Their quarterback is also quite banged up, and the talented Bryce Young has something to prove. Carolina should be able to keep this tight, if not win it outright."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Panthers

Hanford: Panthers

Knox: Buccaneers

Moton: Buccaneers

O'Donnell: Panthers

Sobleski: Panthers

ATS Consensus: Panthers +5.5

SU Consensus: Buccaneers

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 21, Panthers 17

Offensively, the New York Jets have hit rock bottom. They've scored 13 or fewer points in five consecutive games and racked up fewer than 160 total yards in their last two outings.

On top of that, the Jets haven't covered a point spread since they beat the New York Giants 13-10 in Week 8. As of Wednesday, 56 percent of the public bets are on New York over the Atlanta Falcons, but the votes didn't come close to an even split among our crew.

Moton spoke on behalf of a unanimous decision in favor of the Falcons.

"If the Jets tabbed Trevor Siemian as the starting quarterback for this game, they would have a chance win it, but they're going with Tim Boyle again, which is mind-boggling," Moton said.

"Last week, in his first start since the 2021 campaign, Boyle threw for 179 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, which included a pick-six against the Miami Dolphins. He took seven sacks, and the Jets didn't have a ground attack to help him out, racking up 29 rushing yards on 2.9 yards per carry.

"In 19 games, including four starts, Boyle has thrown for four touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He's not the solution to stabilize the Jets offense or salvage their season.

"The Falcons will wear down Gang Green's 31st-ranked run defense with running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier en route to a double-digit victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Falcons

Gagnon: Falcons

Hanford: Falcons

Knox: Falcons

Moton: Falcons

O'Donnell: Falcons

Sobleski: Falcons

ATS Consensus: Falcons -2.5

SU Consensus: Falcons

Score Prediction: Falcons 20, Jets 10

The Indianapolis Colts won't have their most accomplished skill player for this matchup. All-Pro running back and 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor will undergo surgery on his thumb, which will sideline him for up to three weeks, per The Athletic's James Boyd.

Our panel doesn't trust the Colts without their star running back and sided with the Tennessee Titans to win this divisional game.

Sobleski pushed back on the consensus pick with valid reasons to back Indianapolis.

"For some, Jonathan Taylor's thumb injury complicates matters. However, Taylor didn't play a large role in the last matchup with the Titans. In fact, the running back made his season debut in that particular meeting with seven total touches. But Zack Moss posted a career-high 165 rushing yards during that particular contest.

"Tennessee will assuredly gear up to stop Moss. In doing so, the passing game should open wide for Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Pittman has played well with 26 receptions for 255 yards during the Colts' current three-game winning streak. He now faces a Titans pass defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league."

Predictions

Davenport: Titans

Gagnon: Titans

Hanford: Colts

Knox: Titans

Moton: Titans

O'Donnell: Colts

Sobleski: Colts

ATS Consensus: Titans +1

SU Consensus: Titans

Score Prediction: Titans 24, Colts 23

The Houston Texans are one of the most pleasant surprises in multiple aspects.

The Texans have the probable 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year in quarterback C.J. Stroud, third-round wideout Tank Dell ranks second among rookies in receiving yards (709) while tied with Jordan Addison for most receiving touchdowns (seven) among 2023 draftees, and they're one spot out of the No. 7 seed at 6-5.

Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the longest active winning streak after a 1-5 start to the season.

Our panel went with the team on the hottest streak in the AFC, but O'Donnell thinks the Broncos will simmer down a bit on the road.

"Apparently the Broncos' five-game winning streak has earned them enough goodwill with the panel to leave me alone on the Texans laying 3.5 points with only Knox thinking Houston wins outright but doesn't cover," O'Donnell said.

"That's the likelier scenario in my head, too, but I still just don't trust the Broncos enough. Four of their last five games have been played at home. The last time they played in the 1 p.m. ET window was October 1, and the Texans are coming off a stinging loss to a division rival. This is the Texans' final tie of a three-game homestand, and they'll defend their turf with an emphatic victory against a team that is due for a letdown."

Predictions

Davenport: Broncos

Gagnon: Broncos

Hanford: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Broncos

ATS Consensus: Broncos +3.5

SU Consensus: Broncos

Score Prediction: Broncos 26, Texans 24

Two weeks after a victorious Super Bowl 57 rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs, the Philadelphia Eagles will host the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC Championship Game rematch.

This time, the Eagles will try to prevent the opponent from avenging a playoff loss to them.

The Eagles have a battled-tested squad that's knocked off the Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and Chiefs in the last four weeks, but they could experience issues with fatigue following a month of marquee matchups.

Last week, two-time All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson sat out because of a groin injury, but he feels optimistic about his availability for the upcoming matchup, per Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Whether Johnson plays or not, the Eagles' stout offensive line will have tough battles with Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead (DNP for Wednesday's practice with a foot injury) and Chase Young at the line of scrimmage.

Our crew gave the nod to the 49ers to ride extra motivation from the revenge factor as they wear down an Eagles squad that will play a postseason contender in its fourth consecutive outing.

O'Donnell is a bit skeptical of San Francisco, though. He took the points with Philadelphia.

"Loathe to admit it though I am, the Eagles are a good, strong football team. This NFC title game rematch from a season ago, somehow sandwiched for Philly between games against the Chiefs then Bills and Cowboys next week, seems pretty cruel from a scheduling point of view. But the Eagles knew this stretch was coming, and they've proved to be a team that can pull out wins even when they don't play their best game or make mistakes.

"The same cannot necessarily be said for the front-running 49ers. I don't like it, but I'll lay these points down and count on Hurts and Co. to cover even if they do it late."

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Gagnon: 49ers

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: 49ers -2.5

SU Consensus: 49ers

Score Prediction: 49ers 31, Eagles 27

In Week 12, Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson suffered a concussion, and the team hasn't tabbed a starting signal-caller as of Wednesday.

With Deshaun Watson (shoulder surgery) on season-ending injured reserve and Thompson-Robinson's status for Sunday's game unclear, the Browns may have to start Joe Flacco against the Los Angeles Rams.

Most of our crew has major concerns with the Browns' quarterback situation, which swayed our consensus pick in favor of the Rams, but Sobleski thinks Flacco can lead Cleveland to an outright victory.

"In Flacco, the Browns trust. At least, that should be Cleveland's motto for the rest of the season," Sobleski quipped. "Head coach Kevin Stefanski hasn't even named a starter, but it makes too much sense to play the 38-year-old veteran based on what's been seen so far this season.

"The Browns desperately want average quarterback play. They don't need anything more with how good they are in other areas. Weirdly, a quarterback signed less than two weeks ago can finally provide some stability, because everyone knows exactly what he'll provide with the experience to help in presnap situations."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Gagnon: Rams

Hanford: Rams

Knox: Browns

Moton: Rams

O'Donnell: Browns

Sobleski: Browns

ATS Consensus: Rams -4

SU Consensus: Rams

Score Prediction: Rams 22, Browns 17

The Green Bay Packers may have their franchise quarterback in Jordan Love. He had a turnover-plagued stretch from late September through October, but he settled in to play efficiently in November.

Since Week 9, Love has thrown for eight touchdowns and two interceptions, completing at least 67.5 percent of his passes in three of his last four outings.

Furthermore, the Packers have covered the point spread and won their last two games as underdogs. Moton and Gagnon like the way Green Bay has trended coming into this contest, but the majority overruled them on the consensus pick.

Knox explained why the Packers may give the Kansas City Chiefs a scare Sunday night, though he believes the reigning champions have found their offensive groove following a 31-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders.

"Prime-time games can be wacky, and if the line were over a touchdown and an extra point, I'd think long and hard about backing the Packers here. Jordan Love has done some of his best work against man coverage, and Steve Spagnuolo tends to run a lot of it. However, Spagnuolo also does an excellent job of switching up looks and disguising plays, which can create problems for a still-inexperienced starter.

"The Chiefs offense, meanwhile, seemed to finally find a second-half spark in Week 12 and may have settled on a reliable No. 2 target in Rashee Rice. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes remain one of the NFL's biggest constants, and while I expect a relatively close game, I also expect Mahomes to outplay Love down the stretch."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Packers

Hanford: Chiefs

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Chiefs

ATS Consensus: Chiefs -6.5

SU Consensus: Chiefs

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Packers 19

On one hand, the Jacksonville Jaguars have an 8-3 record SU and ATS. Yet statistically, they're not a dominant team.

The Jaguars allow the fifth-most passing yards per game and Trevor Lawrence has 12 touchdown passes and seven interceptions in 11 contests. Jacksonville also ranks 18th in rushing offense.

With those metrics, a Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals squad that needs a win to pump false hope into their playoff aspirations can hang around in a prime-time Monday Night Football matchup.

Backup Bengals quarterback Jake Browning didn't look awful in his first career start, throwing for 227 yards, a touchdown and an interception with a 73.1 percent completion rate against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Cincinnati still has high-level playmakers available with Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd healthy. Tee Higgins (hamstring) could make his return for this contest.

Though the Jaguars earned the consensus nod on a 4-3 count, Hanford believes the Bengals have a shot to stay within a touchdown on the scoreboard.

"Fresh off a big win over the Texans to grab control of the AFC South, the Jaguars look like an easy pick to roll over the Bengals on Monday night, right? All logic and reason point to yes, but I like the Bengals to keep this closer than expected," Hanford said.

"Zac Taylor must realize leaning on Joe Mixon and the run game for more than eight carries would be a wise idea and to just let Jake Browning manage the game in his first road start. Doing so would put a potentially healthy Bengals defense and Lou Anarumo in a position to throw some wrinkles at Trevor Lawrence, at least enough to give him pause, and keep this game within a touchdown."

Predictions

Davenport: Jaguars

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Bengals

Knox: Jaguars

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Bengals

Sobleski: Jaguars

ATS Consensus: Jaguars -8.5

SU Consensus: Jaguars

Score Prediction: Jaguars 31, Bengals 21

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